Renewed volatility in energy and commodity markets is again exposing a divide within Latin America. Exporters may receive a temporary lift from higher prices, while import-dependent economies face greater pressure on inflation and public finances.

Latin America has spent decades trapped in a cycle of disappointing economic growth that contrasts sharply with its enormous potential. The World Bank projects the regional economy will expand by only 2.1% in 2026, the lowest rate among global regions.

Latin America has long lived with a frustrating paradox. The region has abundant natural resources and a young population. Its economies, however, have grown at disappointing rates for decades.

Argentina represents the most challenging case analyzed in this six-part series. Decades of government intervention and fiscal instability made it one of the most costly places in Latin America to invest, and recurring political crises exacerbated the problem. Investors demanded high returns because experience had taught them that the rules could change without warning. Contracts could be modified, or a new economic policy could replace the previous one overnight.

As Colombians head toward the second round of the presidential election on June 21, the country’s increasingly severe fiscal crisis has taken center stage in the campaign.